EUROPEAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES RETHINK DEPENDENCE ON U.S. AMID TRUMP UNCERTAINTY

Across capitals from Berlin to Paris to Brussels, policymakers are expressing quiet but urgent concern over the possibility of a second Trump presidency—and what it could mean for Europe’s intelligence apparatus. Officials from multiple EU nations are now openly discussing the need to develop independent intelligence-sharing systems in case transatlantic cooperation collapses or becomes unreliable.
According to sources in the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, there are real fears that U.S. data pipelines could be throttled or politicized under Trump. The sentiment was echoed by senior French officials who warned that European security is “too vulnerable to Washington’s internal politics.”
A classified memo circulated in the European Commission earlier this month proposed investing in an EU-wide data fusion center, modeled loosely on NATO’s intelligence coordination units but controlled exclusively by European institutions.
These concerns stem not just from Trump’s unpredictability, but also from the weakening of U.S. institutions in recent years. The intelligence community has been battered by politicization, staff turnover, and mistrust, especially in light of recent leaks and cyber intrusions.
If implemented, a shift away from U.S.-centric intelligence could realign Europe’s security priorities—focusing more on cybersecurity, disinformation, migration, and China’s global ambitions—rather than relying on U.S.-driven counterterrorism models.
Analysts warn, however, that such a transition will take years and could face funding obstacles, especially as European nations remain deeply tied to U.S. capabilities.