When President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State on March 18, 2025, many believed it was the final step in resolving a long-standing crisis. Governor Siminalayi Fubara was suspended, the state House of Assembly was dissolved, and Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas (rtd.) was appointed as interim administrator to restore order. On the surface, this intervention seemed like a firm step toward stabilizing Rivers, one of Nigeria’s most strategic oil-producing states.
But beneath the façade of peace, a deeper, more complex battle rages on—one that involves power struggles, propaganda, legal maneuvering, and political subterfuge. While the world assumes Rivers has returned to normal, multiple undercurrents suggest otherwise.
From the outset, the federal government justified its intervention in Rivers by citing security concerns. Reports of pipeline vandalism, including the attack on the Trans Niger Pipeline, were used as the primary reason for suspending Fubara’s administration.
However, critics argue that this was merely a pretext for a deeper political battle. Some believe the crisis was never about security but about control. Rivers State, with its vast oil wealth and political importance, has always been a battleground for Nigeria’s elite. Fubara’s suspension, they argue, was orchestrated by powerful figures seeking to realign the state’s leadership to serve their interests. Others believe the removal of Fubara was part of a larger national strategy designed to neutralize dissent within the ruling party and consolidate federal power in key regions ahead of the next election cycle. Under this theory, Rivers is merely a test case for broader federal control strategies that may later be applied in other politically volatile states. If true, this raises serious concerns about the long-term implications of the federal government’s actions.
The resignation of Rivers State’s former Head of Service, Dr. George Nwaeke, and his subsequent allegations against Fubara added a new layer to the unfolding drama. In a widely publicized interview, Nwaeke accused Fubara of orchestrating the December 2023 bombing of the state House of Assembly and of having connections to attacks on oil infrastructure—claims that, if proven, could justify the federal intervention. However, the bizarre nature of Nwaeke’s case raises more questions than answers.
Shortly after making these allegations, his wife, Florence, went public, claiming her husband had gone missing and that she feared for his safety. Hours later, Nwaeke reappeared in a video from Abuja, declaring that he was safe and had voluntarily met with security agencies. He insisted that his wife had been manipulated into believing he was in danger. The conflicting narratives surrounding his case have led to multiple interpretations.
While Some believe Nwaeke was pressured or blackmailed into making his allegations, the timing of his statements, coming immediately after the state of emergency declaration, suggests they might have been politically motivated. His wife’s alarm and public outcry indicate that she might have sensed something was amiss before he could publicly “correct” her. Others argue that Nwaeke, having inside knowledge of the administration, genuinely decided to expose what he saw as criminal activities, while his wife’s panic was simply an emotional reaction to a situation she did not fully understand. A more cynical school of thought suggests that both Nwaeke and his wife are being used by different political camps. His initial claims and her counterclaims may both be part of a broader strategy to confuse the public and obscure the real power plays at work.
Regardless of the truth, the case of Nwaeke has added to the complexity of the Rivers crisis. His allegations, whether genuine or fabricated, have become a powerful tool in the ongoing power struggle.
With his suspension, many assumed that Fubara was politically finished. However, Rivers State has a long history of political comebacks. The dismantling of his structures by the interim government may seem like a death blow, but some believe he still commands significant influence behind the scenes. Lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of the emergency rule could shift the balance of power. If the courts rule in Fubara’s favor, it could undermine the legitimacy of Tinubu’s intervention. Reports suggest that sections of the local population still support Fubara, especially among those who view the federal government’s actions as an overreach. Some political analysts believe that Fubara’s camp is quietly negotiating a counter-strategy, possibly in collaboration with opposition figures.
There is also a belief that Fubara’s “defeat” is merely a strategic retreat. By laying low, he might be waiting for an opportune moment to reassert his influence, possibly using legal victories or political negotiations to regain power. Rivers politics has a long history of figures who appeared to be finished only to return stronger than before.
One cannot discuss the Rivers crisis without mentioning Nyesom Wike, the former governor and now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory. Wike and Fubara were once allies, but their fallout led to the current crisis. Some believe Wike always intended to control Rivers from behind the scenes and, when Fubara resisted, used his federal connections to orchestrate his removal. Others argue that Wike’s involvement is more about political survival than control. By ensuring Fubara’s downfall, Wike is protecting his own relevance within the ruling party and solidifying his national political ambitions.
A different school of thought suggests that Wike is merely a tool in a larger federal strategy. While he appears to be in control, he might actually be following a script designed by even more powerful figures in Abuja. If this theory is true, then Wike’s role in the crisis is not just about Rivers but about larger political games at the national level. Regardless of which interpretation is correct, Wike’s influence continues to shape events, and his next moves could determine the final outcome of this battle.
While the world assumes that Rivers has returned to peace, the reality is far different. The state remains a ticking time bomb, with political forces still maneuvering behind the scenes. The federal government, the interim administration, Fubara’s camp, and external power players are all engaged in a silent war—a war that could erupt again at any moment. The legal battles, shifting alliances, and ongoing power plays all indicate that Rivers is still in the midst of a struggle for control.
Several questions remain unanswered. Will the courts overturn the emergency rule? Is Fubara planning a political comeback? How will Wike’s role evolve in the coming months? Is the federal government setting a precedent for future interventions in other states?
As Rivers continues to be a battleground, one thing is certain: the battle is far from over. The next chapter of this saga could be even more explosive than the last.
