Vietnam is rethinking its long-standing two-child policy as birth rates continue to decline, raising concerns about the country’s future workforce and aging population.
Official data shows that the birth rate fell to 1.96 children per woman in 2023 and dropped further to 1.91 in 2024—both below the replacement level needed to maintain a stable population. Urban areas are seeing even lower numbers, with Ho Chi Minh City recording the lowest rate at 1.39 children per woman, while northern Ha Giang province has the highest at 2.69.
Experts attribute the decline to delayed marriages, career priorities, and the rising cost of raising children. Deputy Health Minister Nguyen Thi Lien Huong has called for urgent action, suggesting that penalties for having more than two children be removed and financial incentives introduced to encourage larger families.
“If birth rates keep falling, Vietnam’s ‘golden population period’ will end by 2039, and we may face negative growth by 2054,” warned a population expert, Le Thi Thu.
The government is exploring solutions such as improved parental leave, childcare support, and financial relief for parents—strategies that countries like Japan and South Korea have already attempted with mixed results.
However, not everyone supports lifting the two-child policy. Some, like public health researcher Tran Van Minh, argue that it helps control overpopulation and ensures sustainable resource allocation.
As Vietnam weighs its options, policymakers face the challenge of striking a balance between population stability and supporting families in an evolving social and economic landscape.
