Nigeria’s crude oil trade with China is poised to grow significantly after forecasts that Venezuelan oil exports to China will sharply decline, creating a supply gap Beijing is likely to fill with alternative sources including Nigerian crude. Market analysts say ongoing disruptions in Venezuelan oil deliveries driven largely by a U.S. blockade targeting Venezuela’s oil shipments have curtailed flows to Asia’s largest crude importer, opening space for other suppliers.
According to reports, deliveries of Venezuelan crude and fuel oil to China are expected to slump to around 166,000 barrels per day in February 2026, down dramatically from an average of roughly 642,000 barrels per day in 2025 as vessels avoid Venezuelan waters to sidestep seizure under the U.S. blockade.
China relies on a diversified oil import strategy, sourcing crude from the Middle East, Russia and Africa, but Venezuela has historically supplied heavy crude that is attractive to Chinese independent refiners. As Venezuelan barrels become harder to secure, traders and industry watchers believe Nigeria, already a significant supplier of crude and refined products to China, stands to benefit from redirected Chinese demand.
Data from trade analysts note that mineral fuels, including crude oil and natural gas, account for the majority of Nigeria’s exports to China, underpinning the energy-led dimension of bilateral trade. Nigeria’s crude oil shipments to China have been a stable component of its export portfolio, and with Venezuelan volumes at risk, Chinese refiners may look increasingly to Nigerian grades to meet processing needs.
The expected shift comes amid broader global energy market volatility, with supply dynamics reshaped by geopolitical factors and sanctions pressures affecting major producers. Observers say that Nigeria’s production capacity and strategic trade relationships position it to capture incremental demand from China’s refiners, potentially boosting export revenues at a time when global supply conditions are in flux.
The development also highlights how global political events such as maritime blockades and sanctions, can rapidly influence crude trade flows, prompting buyers like China to diversify sources and sellers like Nigeria to expand market share in key import destinations
