A United Nations panel of experts has warned that the extremist group al-Shabab continues to be the single greatest threat to peace and security in Somalia and the wider East African region, particularly neighbouring Kenya, despite ongoing military efforts to curb its operations. The group retains the capacity to conduct complex asymmetric attacks and sustain influence through extortion, forced recruitment and propaganda networks.
The report highlights that al-Shabab has carried out frequent attacks, particularly in border regions of Kenya, including improvised explosive device explosions, raids and kidnappings, underscoring the transnational nature of the threat. In Somalia, the group continues to challenge government authority and has even attempted to assassinate senior officials, reflecting persistent security vulnerabilities.
While international and regional forces — including the African Union stabilization mission and multinational partners — have degraded some of al-Shabab’s capabilities, the expert panel emphasised that its resilience and adaptability necessitate sustained and coordinated counter-terrorism responses. The UN Security Council recently extended the mandate of the African Union’s peacekeeping force in Somalia through the end of 2026 to support ongoing stabilization efforts.
The warning comes amid broader concerns about regional security, with the report also noting the presence and gradual expansion of ISIL-Somalia, a smaller but growing extremist faction. The continued strength of these groups poses challenges for political transitions in Somalia, including electoral processes and governance reforms, by threatening civic participation and public safety across the Horn of Africa.
