A former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, has predicted that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) would suffer a “resounding defeat” in the 2027 general elections if the polls are conducted in a free and fair manner.
Lawal, who is now a prominent figure within the African Democratic Congress (ADC), made the remarks during an appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Wednesday, where he strongly criticised the current administration and raised concerns about Nigeria’s democratic direction.
“APC Cannot Win Free and Fair Elections”
According to Lawal, there is growing concern that the ruling party is unwilling to allow a genuinely competitive electoral process, alleging that the APC is positioning the country towards a one-party state.
“They want a one-party system. Look, it is very clear, every Nigerian understands that this government cannot afford to go to an election in a free and fair manner because they will lose woefully,” he said.
He insisted that, based on internal assessments within opposition circles, the ruling party would struggle at the polls if electoral conditions remain transparent and credible.
When asked whether the African Democratic Congress (ADC) had empirical data supporting its confidence, Lawal affirmed that such data existed but declined to disclose details publicly, describing it as internal party intelligence.
Opposition Confidence Amid Rising Political Tensions
Lawal’s comments come at a time of heightened political activity and tension between opposition parties and the electoral authorities, particularly the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
The ADC and INEC have recently clashed over the leadership structure of the party following disputes surrounding a faction led by former Senate President David Mark. The electoral commission had reportedly suspended recognition of the National Working Committee pending the resolution of ongoing court cases involving internal party disputes.
INEC has also stated that it would not monitor some of the party’s congresses and conventions until legal clarity is achieved.
Despite this position, the ADC proceeded with its internal party activities, including a national convention held earlier in the week, which Lawal described as successful and in line with legal advice.
ADC Insists on Participation in 2027 Elections
Defending the legitimacy of the party’s internal processes, Lawal maintained that the ADC remains fully committed to participating in the 2027 general elections regardless of INEC’s stance on its internal affairs.
“We don’t listen to INEC. They are not the Court of Appeal, they are not the Supreme Court, not even the High Court. So INEC can say whatever they want to say. We are going to be on the ballot whatever INEC says; we are going to participate in this election,” he stated.
He argued that electoral participation is a constitutional right that cannot be arbitrarily denied by administrative decisions, adding that the party has taken steps to ensure compliance with legal requirements while resolving internal disagreements.
Allegations of Democratic Backsliding
Lawal also used the platform to accuse the current administration of attempting to weaken Nigeria’s democratic institutions and concentrate political power.
He expressed concern that ongoing political developments could undermine multi-party democracy and lead to excessive dominance by the ruling party.
While he did not provide specific evidence for the claim of a planned one-party system, he insisted that the signs were becoming increasingly evident in the political space.
His remarks reflect broader concerns frequently raised by opposition figures about electoral fairness, institutional independence, and the role of security agencies and electoral bodies in Nigeria’s democratic process.
INEC, Court Cases, and Party Disputes
The internal crisis within the African Democratic Congress has also drawn attention from the Independent National Electoral Commission, which has maintained that it will act only within the limits of the law regarding recognition of party leadership structures.
INEC has repeatedly stated that it will not interfere in internal party disputes until courts provide final rulings, particularly in cases involving leadership legitimacy and control of party structures.
The commission’s position has led to uncertainty within some political parties, including the ADC, where rival factions continue to contest leadership authority.
Despite these challenges, Lawal expressed confidence that the party is stabilising and positioning itself as a major force ahead of the next general election cycle.
“First Things First: Stop the Current Government”
Beyond electoral concerns, Lawal stressed that the immediate focus of the opposition should be on unseating the current administration in 2027.
According to him, the ADC has developed policy solutions to address Nigeria’s economic and governance challenges but believes those ideas can only be implemented after a change in government.
“First thing first, we have the solution… But first thing first, stop this government from continuing with what they have started,” he said.
He did not provide details of the policy proposals but insisted that the party’s priority remains political change as a foundation for broader reforms.
Growing Political Stakes Ahead of 2027
Lawal’s remarks add to the growing political rhetoric ahead of the 2027 general elections, as opposition parties begin to position themselves against the ruling APC.
Political analysts say early declarations and coalition-building efforts suggest an increasingly competitive electoral environment, even as debates continue over electoral integrity and institutional independence.
While the APC has consistently expressed confidence in its electoral strength, opposition figures like Lawal argue that the outcome will depend largely on the credibility of the electoral process.
